The age of autonomous vehicles has arrived. Autonomous shuttles, cars, farm equipment, mining equipment and trucks, on-highway trucks, and construction equipment will be here soon or are already commercially available. Unmanned air systems first developed for defense purposes are working in a multitude of civil and commercial applications, such as package delivery, infrastructure inspection, agriculture, surveying, and search and rescue. Unmanned underwater vehicles are changing the way we explore oceans and conduct naval operations. Whether by land, air, or water, autonomous vehicles represent both opportunity and disruption for business.

“If business leaders are looking to leverage the unmanned systems technologies of the future, they need to focus on three critical assessments: What will the technology realistically be capable of, when will it realistically be reliable enough for commercial use, and when will it realistically become profitable to leverage,” said Randy Yamada, distinguished scientist at Booz Allen Hamilton, a global consulting firm based in McLean in Northern Virginia.

Levels of Driving Automation infographic

Autonomous Cars, Shuttles, and Trucks

The autonomous-vehicle market will reach $556 billion by 2025, according to Allied Market Research. The market opportunity has attracted startups like Waymo, Bolt, and Tesla, along with mobility service providers such as Uber and Lyft. Autonomous ride-sharing is expected to be an essential part of early deployment and growth — Micron Technology Inc.’s $3 billion investment announced in 2019 was driven in part by potential growth in the unmanned automotive sector. Threatened by a shift toward mobility-as-a-service (MaaS), traditional automakers are pursuing their own autonomous vehicles. Because autonomous vehicles can be driven continuously, the MaaS business model promises good profit margins based on reduced operating costs.

Safety is a big driver for autonomous vehicles. The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) defines six levels of driving automation, from Level 0 (no automation) to Level 5 (full vehicle autonomy). Level 3 vehicles require that a driver be available if something goes wrong. Level 4 vehicles can drive themselves, but may be limited to operating under certain conditions (such as on-highway driving). By late 2020, most makers expect to have their first high-level (Level 3 or 4) autonomous vehicles in production, while Level 5 autonomy is still years away.

Booz Allen Hamilton has been involved in developing a framework for establishing sample preliminary tests for automated driving systems that model ideal scenarios to evaluate a vehicle’s performance based on factors such as operation environment, vehicle maneuvers, and potential failures.

“Autonomous driving is very complex,” said Dave Hofert, chief marketing officer and vice president of sales for Perrone Robotics, a software platform developer focused on last-mile shuttles and specific transit routes based in Crozet, near Charlottesville. “Machine-learning algorithms are difficult to train for every possible scenario.”

With a perpetual shortage of long-haul drivers and an increase in online shopping, Michael Fleming, founder and CEO of Blacksburg-based Torc Robotics, a subsidiary of Daimler Trucks AG, believes there’s a strong business case for Level 4 autonomous trucks. While hours-of-service rules currently limit drivers’ time on the road without rest, autonomous vehicles could potentially operate 24/7.

Autonomous trucks might be deployed on the highway, while human drivers might take control in urban areas. According to Daimler, commercial self-driving trucks will be deployed within the next decade in the United States. “One of the biggest challenges is communicating the maturity of the technology, realistic timelines, and letting the public know that we are going to deploy in a safe and methodical fashion,” said Fleming. “It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Safety will drive the timeline.” 

Fleming believes the fastest path to commercialization is through an original equipment manufacturer (OEM). “By finding an OEM partner that owns the IP stack, you can reinvent the truck, mature the self-driving software stack, and combine the two to bring an end product to the customer,” says Fleming. “Without the OEM, I don’t see commercialization.”

Fleming appreciates Virginia’s autonomous-friendly environment and tech-savvy workforce. “There’s a strong work ethic in Virginia, without a lot of ego. When you put those two together, it’s just a matter of time and a recipe for success.”

Perrone Robotics, Albemarle County

Perrone Robotics, Albemarle County

Unmanned Air Systems (UAS)

Teal Group’s 2019 World Civil UAS Market Profile and Forecast predicts commercial use will surpass the consumer unmanned air systems market in 2023 and grow more than eightfold to reach $9.5 billion in 2028. Military use of unmanned aerial vehicles is also rising. Teal Group’s 2019–2020 military market study estimates unmanned aerial vehicle production worldwide will increase from $7.3 billion in 2019 to $10.2 billion in 2029.Mark Blanks, director of Virginia Tech’s Mid-Atlantic Aviation Partnership (MAAP), has been at the forefront of advancing the use of drones for commercial and civil applications. MAAP was one of three sites that participated in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management Pilot Program, testing unmanned air systems for package delivery, emergency management, and infrastructure inspection. The team was led by Virginia’s Innovation and Entrepreneurship Investment Authority and the Center for Innovative Technology.

Drone Package Delivery

In addition to the FAA’s work with MAAP, the agency selected Mountain Empire Community College in Wise County as one of the first schools to participate in its Unmanned Aircraft Systems Collegiate Training Institute. Participating colleges and universities will engage with the FAA, general industry, local governments, law enforcement, and other entities to address labor force needs.

Drone delivery is expected to be one of the fastest-growing segments of the industry, as companies like UPS, Amazon, and FedEx look for more economic and efficient ways to provide last-mile delivery.

Beginning in 2019, Wing, the drone- delivery unit of Alphabet, partnered with FedEx, Walgreens, and a local retailer to offer drone deliveries in Christiansburg. State Farm was granted the first national waiver by the FAA to conduct drone operations over people and beyond the pilot’s visual line of sight for catastrophic assessments. MAAP provided operational expertise and the research experience to help navigate the approval process and collect supporting data.

 

Richmond-based Dominion Energy worked with MAAP to gain FAA approval for expanded beyond-visual-line-of-sight drone flights to enable more efficient inspection of linear infrastructure.

Blanks attributes MAAP’s success to reputation, relationships, and capabilities. “We have a good relationship with FAA and a good reputation as an objective and knowledgeable third party,” he said. Virginia boasts a UAS test site, as well as two NASA facilities focusing on UAS research, Langley Research Center and Wallops Flight Facility. Partnering with faculty at Virginia Tech, MAAP has been able to tackle the most challenging technical aspects of UAS integration.

Winged Drone

Wing offers drone deliveries in Christiansburg from FedEx, Walgreens, and local retailer Sugar Magnolia.

Flying beyond line of sight is among the key obstacles to adoption of UAS in many industries. Doing it safely requires that drones detect and avoid other aircraft.

Boeing’s experience with unmanned systems is rooted in work for the U.S. Department of Defense on the MQ-25, ScanEagle, and RQ-21 Blackjack. According to Per Beith, president and CEO of Manassas-based Aurora Flight Sciences, a Boeing company, the same safety, efficiency, and strategy-driven implementation employed in defense projects can be applied to commercial UAS systems.

Boeing is focused on next-generation airspace management, global airspace integration, modeling smart cities, working with regulators, and exploring new market opportunities that will make the future mobility ecosystem a reality. Some of the prototype programs involve passenger and cargo air vehicles, commercial small autonomous systems, and passenger-carrying hypersonic aircraft.

“Even more important than the development of tomorrow’s aircraft is the need to create a new kind of global airspace that’s safe, reliable, and robust enough to accommodate a diverse range of vehicles — both piloted and autonomous,” said Beith.

The FAA recently proposed rules for flying over people and remote identification of UAS operated in the U.S. airspace. Remote ID is the ability of an unmanned aircraft in flight to provide identification and location information to people on the ground and to other airspace users. When these rules are finalized, Blanks believes the FAA will be more receptive to flying beyond visual line of sight. Boeing also expects a phased-in adoption of future air vehicles when all of the associated hard problems — autonomy, electric and hybrid electric propulsion, airspace integration, and regulation — are solved.

“There’s probably more real-world commercial-level activity happening here in Virginia than anywhere in the country,” said Blanks. “It’s a testament to the positive business climate, technical capability, and support from multiple administrations.”

There’s probably more real-world commercial-level activity happening here in Virginia than anywhere in the country. It’s a testament to the positive business climate, technical capability, and support from multiple administrations.

Mark Blanks Director, Mid-Atlantic Aviation Partnership

Reimagining the Future

Autonomous technology enables us to reimagine transportation and how we work. “With increasing urbanization, a growing global population, aging infrastructure and the explosion of e-commerce, there is a need for new, safe, sustainable, and accessible modes of transportation,” said Beith. “Now is the right time to solve for the transportation challenges of the future.”

While developers are eager to get their solutions to market and businesses may be excited to deploy them, Booz Allen Hamilton’s Yamada urges caution: “Adopt unmanned technologies at a pace that is natural, safe, and profitable.”

Virginia is positioned to lead the way in ensuring that those technologies are rolled out in a way that makes sense for developers, businesses, and citizens alike.

Torc Robotics, Blacksburg

Torc Robotics, Blacksburg

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